Genome-wide association analysis and Mendelian randomization proteomics identify drug targets for heart failure.

We conduct a large-scale meta-analysis of heart failure genome-wide association studies (GWAS) consisting of over 90,000 heart failure cases and more than 1 million control individuals of European ancestry to uncover novel genetic determinants for heart failure. Using the GWAS results and blood protein quantitative loci, we perform Mendelian randomization and colocalization analyses on human proteins to provide putative causal evidence for the role of druggable proteins in the genesis of heart failure. We identify 39 genome-wide significant heart failure risk variants, of which 18 are previously unreported. Using a combination of Mendelian randomization proteomics and genetic cis-only colocalization analyses, we identify 10 additional putatively causal genes for heart failure. Findings from GWAS and Mendelian randomization-proteomics identify seven (CAMK2D, PRKD1, PRKD3, MAPK3, TNFSF12, APOC3 and NAE1) proteins as potential targets for interventions to be used in primary prevention of heart failure.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Rare and Common Genetic Variation Underlying the Risk of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in a National Biobank.

Importance: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a leading cause of sudden cardiac death in young people. Although rare genetic variants are well-established contributors to HCM risk, common genetic variants have recently been implicated in disease pathogenesis. Objective: To assess the contributions of rare and common genetic variation to risk of HCM in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of the UK Biobank (data from 2006-2010) and the Mass General Brigham Biobank (2010-2019) assessed the relative and joint contributions of rare genetic variants and a common variant (polygenic) score to risk of HCM. Both rare and common variant predictors were then evaluated in the context of relevant clinical risk factors. Data analysis was conducted from May 2021 to February 2022. Exposures: Pathogenic rare variants, common-variant (polygenic) score, and clinical risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of HCM. Results: The primary study population comprised 184 511 individuals from the UK Biobank. Mean (SD) age was 56 (8) years, 83 690 (45%) of participants were men, and 204 (0.1%) participants had HCM. Of 51 genes included in clinical genetic testing panels for HCM, pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in 14 core genes (designated by the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics [ACMG]) were associated with 55-fold higher odds (95% CI, 35-83) of HCM, while those in the remaining 37 non-ACMG genes were not significantly associated with HCM (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.6-4.0). ClinVar pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutations in MYBPC3 (OR, 72; 95% CI, 39-124) and MYH7 (OR, 61; 95% CI, 26-121) were strongly associated with HCM, as were loss-of-function variants in ALPK3 (OR, 13; 95% CI, 4.4-28). A polygenic score was strongly associated with HCM (OR per SD increase in score, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.8), with concordant results in the Mass General Brigham Biobank. Genetic factors enhanced clinical risk prediction for HCM: addition of rare variant carrier status and the polygenic score to clinical risk factors (obesity, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and coronary artery disease) improved the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve from 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65-0.77) to 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77-0.87). Conclusions and Relevance: Both rare and common genetic variants contribute substantially to HCM susceptibility in the general population and improve HCM risk prediction beyond that achieved with clinical factors.

Risk factors and prediction models for incident heart failure with reduced and preserved ejection fraction.

AIMS: This study aims to develop the first race-specific and sex-specific risk prediction models for heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We created a cohort of 1.8 million individuals who had an outpatient clinic visit between 2002 and 2007 within the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System and obtained information on HFpEF, HFrEF, and several risk factors from electronic health records (EHR). Variables were selected for the risk prediction models in a 'derivation cohort' that consisted of individuals with baseline date in 2002, 2003, or 2004 using a forward stepwise selection based on a change in C-index threshold. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the remaining participants (internal 'validation cohort'). A total of 66 831 individuals developed HFpEF, and 92 233 developed HFrEF (52 679 and 71 463 in the derivation cohort) over a median of 11.1 years of follow-up. The HFpEF risk prediction model included age, diabetes, BMI, COPD, previous MI, antihypertensive treatment, SBP, smoking status, atrial fibrillation, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), while the HFrEF model additionally included previous CAD. For the HFpEF model, C-indices were 0.74 (SE = 0.002) for white men, 0.76 (0.005) for black men, 0.79 (0.015) for white women, and 0.77 (0.026) for black women, compared with 0.72 (0.002), 0.72 (0.004), 0.77 (0.017), and 0.75 (0.028), respectively, for the HFrEF model. These risk prediction models were generally well calibrated in each race-specific and sex-specific stratum of the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Our race-specific and sex-specific risk prediction models, which used easily obtainable clinical variables, can be a useful tool to implement preventive strategies or subtype-specific prevention trials in the nine million users of the VA healthcare system and the general population after external validation.

Actionable druggable genome-wide Mendelian randomization identifies repurposing opportunities for COVID-19.

Drug repurposing provides a rapid approach to meet the urgent need for therapeutics to address COVID-19. To identify therapeutic targets relevant to COVID-19, we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses, deriving genetic instruments based on transcriptomic and proteomic data for 1,263 actionable proteins that are targeted by approved drugs or in clinical phase of drug development. Using summary statistics from the Host Genetics Initiative and the Million Veteran Program, we studied 7,554 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and >1 million controls. We found significant Mendelian randomization results for three proteins (ACE2, P = 1.6 × 10-6; IFNAR2, P = 9.8 × 10-11 and IL-10RB, P = 2.3 × 10-14) using cis-expression quantitative trait loci genetic instruments that also had strong evidence for colocalization with COVID-19 hospitalization. To disentangle the shared expression quantitative trait loci signal for IL10RB and IFNAR2, we conducted phenome-wide association scans and pathway enrichment analysis, which suggested that IFNAR2 is more likely to play a role in COVID-19 hospitalization. Our findings prioritize trials of drugs targeting IFNAR2 and ACE2 for early management of COVID-19.

Risk of stroke in relation to degree of asymptomatic carotid stenosis: a population-based cohort study, systematic review, and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty around which patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis should be offered surgical intervention. Although stroke rates were unrelated to the degree of stenosis in the medical-treatment-only groups in previous randomised trials, this could simply reflect recruitment bias and there has been no systematic analysis of a stenosis-risk association in cohort studies. We aimed to establish whether there is any association between the degree of asymptomatic stenosis and ipsilateral stroke risk in patients on contemporary medical treatment. METHODS: We did a prospective population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study; OxVasc), and a systematic review and meta-analysis. All patients in OxVasc with a recent suspected transient ischaemic attack or stroke, between April 1, 2002, and April 1, 2017, who had asymptomatic carotid stenosis were included in these analyses. We commenced contemporary medical treatment and determined ipsilateral stroke risk in this cohort by face-to-face follow-up (to Oct 1, 2020). We also did a systematic review and meta-analysis of all published studies (from Jan 1, 1980, to Oct 1, 2020) reporting ipsilateral stroke risk in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and included both observational cohort studies and medical treatment groups of randomised controlled trials if the number of patients exceeded 30, ipsilateral stroke rates (or the raw data to calculate these) were provided, and were published in English. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2002, and April 1, 2017, 2354 patients were consecutively enrolled in OxVasc and 2178 patients underwent carotid imaging, of whom 207 had 50-99% asymptomatic stenosis of at least one carotid bifurcation (mean age at imaging: 77·5 years [SD 10·3]; 88 [43%] women). The 5-year ipsilateral stroke risk increased with the degree of stenosis; patients with 70-99% stenosis had a significantly greater 5-year ipsilateral stroke risk than did those with 50-69% stenosis (six [14·6%; 95% CI 3·5-25·7] of 53 patients vs none of 154; p<0·0001); and patients with 80-99% stenosis had a significantly greater 5-year ipsilateral stroke risk than did those with 50-79% stenosis (five [18·3%; 7·7-29·9] of 34 patients vs one [1·0%; 0·0-2·9] of 173; p<0·0001). Of the 56 studies identified in the systematic review (comprising 13 717 patients), 23 provided data on ipsilateral stroke risk fully stratified by degree of asymptomatic stenosis (in 8419 patients). Stroke risk was linearly associated with degree of ipsilateral stenosis (p<0·0001); there was a higher risk in patients with 70-99% stenosis than in those with 50-69% stenosis (386 of 3778 patients vs 181 of 3806 patients; odds ratio [OR] 2·1 [95% CI 1·7-2·5], p<0·0001; 15 cohort studies, three trials) and a higher risk in patients with 80-99% stenosis than in those with 50-79% stenosis (77 of 727 patients vs 167 of 3272 patients; OR 2·5 [1·8-3·5], p<0·0001; 11 cohort studies). Heterogeneity in stroke risk between studies for patients with severe versus moderate stenosis (phet<0·0001) was accounted for by highly discrepant results (pdiff<0·0001) in the randomised controlled trials of endarterectomy compared with cohort studies (trials: pooled OR 0·8 [95% CI 0·6-1·2], phet=0·89; cohorts: 2·9 [2·3-3·7], phet=0·54). INTERPRETATION: Contrary to the assumptions of current guidelines and the findings of subgroup analyses of previous randomised controlled trials, the stroke risk reported in cohort studies was highly dependent on the degree of asymptomatic carotid stenosis, suggesting that the benefit of endarterectomy might be underestimated in patients with severe stenosis. Conversely, the 5-year stroke risk was low for patients with moderate stenosis on contemporary medical treatment, calling into question any benefit from revascularisation. FUNDING: NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, and the British Heart Foundation.